Probabilidade portas
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Probabilidade portas
Um programa de televisão resolveu criar um quadro onde um participante pode ganhar um prêmio em dinheiro no valor de R$ 1.000.000,00. Na frente do participante existem dez portas fechadas, numeradas de 1 a 10. Atrás de uma dessas portas, existe uma mala contendo o prêmio em dinheiro. Atrás das outras nove portas não existe nada. O participante deve escolher uma das dez portas: se atrás da porta escolhida estiver o dinheiro, ele ganha o prêmio.
Em um desses programas, o participante escolheu a porta de número 7. Para aumentar o suspense, o apresentador do programa, que sabe aonde está o prêmio, resolveu abrir as portas de número 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 e 10, mostrando que não havia nada atrás destas. Sobrando apenas as portas 6 e 7, o participante ainda tem a chance de ganhar o prêmio. Ao invés de abrir a porta de número 7 e revelar se o participante ganhou ou não o prêmio, o apresentador do programa decide perguntar se ele gostaria de trocar sua escolha para a porta número 6, ou manter sua escolha inicial.
Baseando-se em argumentos lógicos e matemáticos, pode-se concluir que:
(Questão de um simulado gymbo para o enem, mas sinceramente não encontrei lógica nenhuma nessa alternativa de trocar a escolha e aumentar as chances, alguém?)
a) | ![]() | O participante deve trocar sua escolha, pois assim, teria uma maior probabilidade de ganhar o prêmio. |
b) | O participante deve trocar sua escolha, pois ele deve perceber que o apresentador está tentando induzi-lo a manter sua escolha para que ele não ganhe o prêmio. |
c) | O participante não deve trocar sua escolha, pois assim, tem uma maior probabilidade de ganhar o prêmio. |
d) | O participante não deve trocar a sua escolha, pois ele deve perceber que o apresentador não teria feito essa pergunta se ele tivesse errado sua escolha na primeira vez. |
e) | ![]() | Trocar ou não a sua escolha não afeta as chances matemáticas do participante em ganhar o prêmio, visto que, após abrir as oito portas, sobraram duas portas que podem conter o prêmio, logo, sua chance é de 50%. |
Beatriz..- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 121
Data de inscrição : 30/04/2015
Idade : 25
Localização : Brasil
Re: Probabilidade portas
Vou tentar ilustrar o problema, mas caso este exemplo não ajude, procure pelo problema dos bodes, é uma caso mais "famoso" deste problema, e de mais fácil entendimento ![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
![Probabilidade portas 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)
![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
vladimir silva de avelar- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 156
Data de inscrição : 24/08/2015
Idade : 36
Localização : Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brasil
Re: Probabilidade portas
Note que, independente da porta que ele abrir, sua chance estando na porta 7, vai continuar sendo 1/10. Então, ao mudar de porta, tendo só a porta 6 como opção, você vai ter 9/10 de chances de encontrar o prêmio.
vladimir silva de avelar- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 156
Data de inscrição : 24/08/2015
Idade : 36
Localização : Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brasil
vladimir silva de avelar- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 156
Data de inscrição : 24/08/2015
Idade : 36
Localização : Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brasil
Re: Probabilidade portas
Onde eu fui me meter!!
Vi um vídeo do mesalva, e também achei essa explicação que gostei muito:
Existem três casos: Caso 1: Você escolhe o carro: o apresentador elimina uma das portas e sobra-se o carro(escolhido) e a porta que sobra. Se trocar perde. Resultado: Perde
Caso 2: Você escolhe uma porta: Porta A: o apresentador elimina a porta B e sobra uma porta e um carro, se trocar ganha.
Resultado: Ganha
Caso 3 Você escolhe uma porta: Porta B: o apresentador elimina a porta A e sobra uma porta e um carro, se trocar ganha.
Resultado: Ganha
Dá pra fazer, mas aposto que a maioria erra porque no início é uma coisa bem intuitiva ir nos 50%. Bem complicado isso hem?
Vi um vídeo do mesalva, e também achei essa explicação que gostei muito:
Existem três casos: Caso 1: Você escolhe o carro: o apresentador elimina uma das portas e sobra-se o carro(escolhido) e a porta que sobra. Se trocar perde. Resultado: Perde
Caso 2: Você escolhe uma porta: Porta A: o apresentador elimina a porta B e sobra uma porta e um carro, se trocar ganha.
Resultado: Ganha
Caso 3 Você escolhe uma porta: Porta B: o apresentador elimina a porta A e sobra uma porta e um carro, se trocar ganha.
Resultado: Ganha
Dá pra fazer, mas aposto que a maioria erra porque no início é uma coisa bem intuitiva ir nos 50%. Bem complicado isso hem?
Beatriz..- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 121
Data de inscrição : 30/04/2015
Idade : 25
Localização : Brasil
Re: Probabilidade portas
Então, tem um caso (não sei sobre a veracidade) de uma jornalista que publicou essa solução em sua coluna e foi severamente criticada até por matemáticos, que não concordavam com a probabilidade de 2/3. Logo, não se preocupe, este é um erro bem comum ![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
vladimir silva de avelar- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 156
Data de inscrição : 24/08/2015
Idade : 36
Localização : Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brasil
Re: Probabilidade portas
Li algumas pessoas relatando que fizeram os experimentos e que essa teoria é realmente verdadeira, mas a princípio parece um pouco surreal.
Muito obrigada por me ajudar com mais essa vladimir, abraços!
Muito obrigada por me ajudar com mais essa vladimir, abraços!
Beatriz..- Recebeu o sabre de luz
- Mensagens : 121
Data de inscrição : 30/04/2015
Idade : 25
Localização : Brasil
![-](https://2img.net/i/empty.gif)
» Se uma sala tem 10 portas...
» Probabilidade(Teorema da probabilidade total)
» Probabilidade - dobro da probabilidade
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» Combinatória - (portas de entrada)
» Probabilidade(Teorema da probabilidade total)
» Probabilidade - dobro da probabilidade
» Probabilidade
» Combinatória - (portas de entrada)
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